Copyright © 2016 by Mark Gabrish Conlan for Zenger’s
Newsmagazine • All rights reserved
If nothing else,
the fooforaw about the recently concluded Iowa caucuses underscored the sheer
preposterousness of the process by which the U.S. elects its President. The
2016 Presidential campaign had been in full swing for at least six months by
the time the Iowa caucuses happened February 1 and for the first time actual voters had a chance to weigh in on who their next leader
should be. Until then, the airwaves had been full of statements by the
candidates themselves, their supporters, their detractors and the so-called
“pundits” on radio and TV who declaim endlessly about the political realm.
Almost every time I hear one of those people I can’t help but think of Oscar
Wilde’s wisecrack in one of his plays about the woman who “could state the
obvious with a sense of real discovery.”
Iowans who
turned out for the February 1 caucus didn’t actually cast a vote for the
presidency. Instead, in the sort of multi-step indirect process our Founding
Fathers loved (if you read the Constitution you’ll find they intended that no
common people would be allowed to vote directly for any office higher than
member of the House of Representatives, and when the Constitution was ratified
even that vote was restricted almost entirely to white male landowners), they
were actually voting for delegates to a county party convention, which will elect delegates to a state party convention, which will in
turn elect delegates to the Democratic and Republican national party
conventions, which will at least in theory select the presidential nominee. I
said “in theory” because it’s been a long time (1972 for the Democrats and 1976
for the Republicans) since the outcome of a Presidential nomination process
hasn’t already been decided well before the convention occurred.
What’s more,
though it pains me to say this — aside from a couple of brief flirtations with
the Peace and Freedom Party, I’ve been a registered Democrat ever since I was
old enough to vote — is that the Republicans in Iowa run their caucuses far
more rationally and, well, democratically than the Democrats. The Republicans
at least take votes by secret ballot, count them in plain view of the
caucus-goers, and release the actual numbers of people who voted for each
candidate. The Democrats run their
caucuses like a race for class president in a grade school. If you want to vote
for a candidate, you actually have to walk to the corner of the room where
their supporters are holding forth and make your choice visibly before the rest
of the caucus-goers. What’s more, the Democrats don’t announce how many
caucus-goers voted for each candidate — only the number of delegates to the
state convention, which will elect delegates to the national convention that
will theoretically pick the nominee, each candidate won.
As anyone with
access to a newspaper, a radio, a TV, a computer or a smartphone probably
already knows by now, Texas Senator Ted Cruz finished first on the Republican
side with 28 percent of the vote, to 24 percent for billionaire real-estate
developer and TV reality star Donald Trump and 23 percent for Florida Senator
Marco Rubio. Retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson got 9 percent and the rest of the
field — including former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, son of one President and
brother of another — were mired in the low single digits. Indeed, former
Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee — who won Iowa in his 2008 Presidential bid —
announced on the eve of the caucuses he was “suspending his campaign,” a bit of
legal legerdemain that — unlike an actual withdrawal — allows him to keep
raising funds to pay off his campaign debt.
On the
Democratic side, the race was tied. Repeat: the race was tied. With 99 percent of the precincts reporting on caucus
night, former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton had 49.8 percent and
Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders 49.6 percent. Even within an actual vote count,
two-tenths of one percent is definitely within the margin of error. Most of the
mainstream media have been “spinning” this tissue paper-thin margin as a
“victory” for Clinton, but don’t you believe it. Six months ago, the polls in
Iowa had her with 65 percent to just 6 percent for Sanders. With hard work,
dedication, an inspiring message and a special outreach to young people — many of
whom were born during the presidency of Clinton’s husband and don’t have the
warm, fuzzy feeling about it a lot of us older people do — Sanders closed that
gap and turned the race into a tie.
With a few
exceptions, the reporting on Sanders’ campaign in the mainstream media has been
biased, sometimes contemptibly so. Sanders has experienced the first three of
the four cycles Mahatma Gandhi was famously talking about when he said, “First
they ignore us. Then they ridicule us. Then they insult us. Then we win.” It’s
clear from much of the commentary about the Clinton-Sanders race (and with the
third Democratic challenger, Martin O’Malley, having “suspended his campaign”
after a dismal showing in Iowa, that’s just what it is) that the mainstream
media and their corporate owners have already decided Hillary Clinton is to be
the Democratic nominee, and woe betide any restive Democrats who have any other
ideas.
Their most
recent strategy has been to bring up George McGovern’s landslide defeat in 1972
and tell the Democrats, their fingers wagging in disapproval the way a
grade-school teacher might lecture an unruly class, “Don’t do that to yourselves again.” The fact that McGovern was
running against a popular incumbent who had just released world tensions by
reopening relations between the U.S. and China and pursuing détente with the Soviet Union isn’t mentioned. Nor is the
fact that the popular President, Richard Nixon, was systematically rigging the
election in ways that only became public knowledge months after the Watergate
burglars were caught. They also don’t mention that the next time the Democrats
had to take on a popular Republican incumbent — Ronald Reagan in 1984 — they
nominated a centrist, Walter Mondale, and still got creamed.
For us Sanders
supporters, the relevant comparison isn’t 1972 but 2008. Indeed, if I were
Hillary Clinton I’d be having dèja vu
nightmares — “Oh, shit! It’s happening again!” In 2008 Clinton was considered the prohibitive
favorite for the Democratic nomination, and her status as the first female
nominee of either major U.S. political party was all but assured — but
progressives in the Democratic party had other ideas. They rallied behind an
obscure Senator from Illinois named Barack Obama, who had been right on the
paramount foreign policy issue of the 2000’s — whether the U.S. should respond
to the 9/11 attacks by invading and conquering Iraq, a country that had had
nothing to do with 9/11 and didn’t pose a threat to the U.S. at all — where
Clinton had been spectacularly wrong. That’s why this year Clinton is still
trying to make it to the Presidency instead of preparing to leave it.
Indeed, in a
real way Bernie Sanders has already won, whether he gets the nomination or not.
Before he entered the field, Clinton was planning to offer herself in 2016 as a
classic “triangulation” candidate. In late 2015 she gave an interview on
foreign affairs to the Atlantic in which
she rather snippily said, “‘Don’t do stupid stuff’ is not a foreign policy.”
Since “Don’t do stupid stuff” was already known as a catch-phrase President
Obama used to describe his
foreign policy, and that as Obama’s Secretary of State Clinton had advocated
more hawkish strategies than Obama had been willing to do (like direct U.S.
bombing attacks on the government of Syria), the anti-Obama message behind her
comments was obvious.
Before Bernie
Sanders, Hillary Clinton evidently planned to present herself as what’s been
called a “Third Way Democrat,” criticizing both Obama and his Republican predecessor George W. Bush and saying we
needed to vote for her to protect ourselves against crazies on both the Left
and the Right. She was signaling with that Atlantic interview that she felt her husband was the last
decent President the U.S. had had and her election would be a return to the
economic good times and relative peace of Bill Clinton’s years. Now she’s
singing a different tune, trying to claim for herself most of the same
progressive goals as Sanders but saying she’s the pragmatist who can actually
achieve them. She got caught in an embarrassing moment when she attacked
Sanders as someone who thought he could just “wave a magic wand” and make
fundamental changes happen — and some New York Times reporters got hold of a video clip from 2008 in
which she’d used the same “magic wand” phrase to attack Obama.
Of course, once
he actually took office Obama abandoned his campaign promises to be a
progressive leader and mobilize his supporters to overcome Congressional
opposition. He campaigned as a transformational leader but governed as a
transactional one, sucking up to the big corporate interests that really run
the country. His vaunted health-care reform was based on a plan originally
concocted in the 1990’s by the Right-wing Heritage Foundation and first signed
into law on a state level by Obama’s 2012 opponent, former Massachusetts
Governor Mitt Romney. Ironically, the folks at Heritage had put together the
basics of what became the Affordable Care Act in case Hillary Clinton got too
far with the health plan she was putting together for her husband’s
administration in 1993 — but with the Republicans and conservative Democrats
were able to stop without having to propose an alternative.
Today Hillary
Clinton is running as the defender of so-called “Obamacare.” The Republicans in
Congress have done over 60, count ’em, 60
votes to get rid of it, saying they want to “repeal and replace” Obamacare when
it’s clear they want to repeal it and not replace it with anything. To the
extent the Republicans — who as an extreme Libertarian party ultimately want to
junk the entire social safety net, including Social Security, Medicare,
unemployment insurance and every other program to help non-rich people with
government money — have a
health-care alternative, it’s even more giveaways to the health insurance and
pharmaceutical industries. The only major-party Presidential candidate who’s
actually proposing to repeal and replace Obamacare is Bernie Sanders, who wants to get rid of private health
insurance altogether and introduce a Canadian-style single-payer health
insurance system by expanding Medicare access to the whole population.
Of course, it’s
hard to overestimate the difficulties either Clinton or Sanders will have in actually getting anything they’re
proposing enacted by Congress. Between the huge contributions to super-PAC’s
authorized by the U.S. Supreme Court’s 2012 Citizens United decision and the Republicans’ skill at capturing
state governments and gerrymandering Congressional as well as state legislative
districts (redistricting has become the fulfillment of Bertolt Brecht’s bitter
joke about “the government dissolving the people and electing another”), the
next President, Republican or Democrat, will likely face a Republican Senate
and almost certainly a Republican House. One commentator whose name escapes me
wrote recently that the Democrats are facing a choice between Hillary Clinton,
who will propose a program slightly more radical than Obama’s that Congress
will ignore; and Bernie Sanders, who will propose a program much more radical than Obama’s that Congress will ignore.
Republican Revolution on
Hold
Meanwhile, the
Republicans have quietly — and sometimes not so quietly — been building
momentum over decades for a Right-wing political revolution that, under the
guise of returning to a vision of an “American ideal” that supposedly once
existed, will massively roll back all
government programs that benefit the non-rich, including public education; as
well as end all regulation of business and all laws protecting workers’ rights,
including their health and safety, and the environment. Their model is the
1880’s, the age of the super-capitalists who used to be called “robber barons”
before Right-wing historians started rehabilitating them in the image of Ayn
Rand’s capitalist superheroes, in which workers (including children) labored
for 18 hours a day in utterly atrocious conditions, their employers had so much
control over their lives they were virtual slaves, government was more or less
openly bribed by the wealthy individuals and corporations that ran the economy,
workers who tried to organize labor unions were jailed or just killed, and
quite frequently — in 1873, 1893 and 1897 — the economy was utterly devastated
by so-called “Panics” (19th-century speak for “depressions”) in
which working people literally starved to death without jobs and without help.
If you want to
see what the nation will look like once the Republicans grab the one part of
the federal government they don’t already control — the Presidency — you need
look no farther than Flint, Michigan. First Republican Governor Rick Snyder
fired the elected local officials and installed a state-appointed manager to
take over the city government of Flint and save money wherever possible. Then
the manager decided to stop buying water from Detroit and instead feed the city
water from the polluted Flint River through lead-lined pipes which only made
the stuff even more toxic. Then, when the revelation came out that not only
were people getting sick from the lead-soaked water but all that lead was going
to stunt the mental growth of Flint’s children for their entire lives, Snyder
first blamed the “experts” and civil servants around him, then hired a new set
of “experts” to report to him about ways to clean up the problem. Meanwhile,
the citizens of Flint are not only dealing with toxic water coming out of their
taps, they still have to pay for it.
The Republican
ambition to undo the progressive reforms achieved under Theodore Roosevelt (a
Republican President who was read out of the party in 1912 and would be even
less welcome in it today), Woodrow Wilson and Franklin Roosevelt began while
FDR was still in office, in the late 1930’s, when many of the forerunners to
today’s radical Right were not only anti-New Deal but anti-Semitic and openly
sympathetic to Nazi Germany and fascist Italy. The radical Right survived World
War II and thought they had achieved national power in 1946, when voters
elected a Republican Congress — but it lasted only two years before Democratic
President Harry Truman rallied voters not only to re-elect him but put the
Democrats back in the majority of both houses.
The radical
Right thought it had a chance to take power in 1952, but their preferred
candidate for the Republican nomination, Robert A. Taft, lost to Dwight Eisenhower,
who made it clear in office he was interested in preserving and tweaking the
New Deal, not eliminating it. (He was also the only post-World War II President
who left office with the defense budget smaller than it had been when he took
over; having formerly run the U.S.
military, he knew how wasteful and unnecessary most so-called “defense”
spending really was.) They thought they had a chance to take power in 1964,
when Barry Goldwater became the first “movement conservative” to win the
Republican Presidential nomination — and while Goldwater’s ideas, including
privatizing Social Security and selling FDR’s big public-power project, the
Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA), were then too far out of the mainstream to elect him, the
Republicans doubled down on his ideology and found other, more persuasive
spokespeople to push it.
In 1968 Richard
Nixon won the Presidency and established the Right-wing ideological realignment
that, despite some reverses, has dominated American politics ever since. By
reaching out to Senator Strom Thurmond and working out the so-called “Southern
strategy” — basically exploiting white racism and prejudice against the 1960’s
counter-culture — they permanently pulled not only the white South but the
white working class in the North out of the Democratic coalition and into the
Republican one. In 1972 Nixon thought that by winning a sweeping landslide
re-election victory he could finally put the Right-wing ideology into practice,
even though Congress remained in Democratic hands. But the political meltdown
from the Watergate scandal, Nixon’s forced resignation and the inability of his
appointed successor, Gerald Ford, to win election in 1976 once again put the
Right-wing revolution on hold.
The Right
thought they had their next chance for absolute power in 1980, when Ronald
Reagan squeaked through with barely over 50 percent of the vote in a
Presidential race with at least three major candidates. (An interesting
illustration of how the victors rewrite history is the frequent description of
Reagan’s 1980 win as a “landslide.” It wasn’t, though his 1984 re-election
certainly was.) But Reagan, though he campaigned as a “movement conservative,”
governed as a conservative pragmatist, advancing the Right’s agenda on some
issues but doing things — like signing a bill granting amnesty to undocumented
immigrants in 1986 and reversing some of his early tax cuts when they tanked
the economy — that would get him read out of the Republican party today.
The next
opportunity the Right had for total control — “full-spectrum dominance,” as
George W. Bush’s advisor Karl Rove put it — was after the hotly contested 2000
election and after the 9/11 attacks made it seem like any criticism of the
second President Bush was unpatriotic and virtually treasonous. The Bushes and
Rove mapped out a strategy not only to keep the Congress in Republican hands
indefinitely but to keep the Bush family in the White House. But the
unpopularity of the war in Iraq, the display of governmental incompetence in
the response to Hurricane Katrina, and the sudden meltdown of the U.S. economy
in 2008 (largely as a result of the deregulatory policies the Republicans
favor), led to the Republicans losing Congress in 2006 and the Presidency two
years later.
Now they’re
feeling their oats again. The so-called “Obama coalition” has proven able to
elect only one person — Obama himself. Otherwise Obama’s years in office have
been one political disaster for the Democratic party after another. In 2010 the
Democrats not only lost the House of Representatives but, even more
importantly, lost big in governorships and state legislatures. The reason
that’s significant is that any year ending in “0” is a census year, and the
party that’s in power in a state after an election in a census year is the one that
will have the ability to remake the state’s legislative and Congressional
districts to favor themselves. The Republicans came into the Obama years with a
5-4 majority on the U.S. Supreme Court, which they’ve used to eviscerate the
Voting Rights Act, eliminate virtually all restrictions on the ability of rich
people to buy elections, and in rulings expected this year will probably
decimate the ability of organized labor to be politically active and radically
curtail women’s rights to reproductive choice. And in 2014 they won control of
the U.S. Senate, which means that now the bills to repeal Obamacare, defund
Planned Parenthood or attack (to mix my French metaphors) whatever the right’s bête
noire de jour is get through both houses of Congress — and only Obama’s veto pen
stands in the way of their becoming law.
All the
Republicans need to do in 2016 is elect a President, and if they keep control
of both houses of Congress they will run the entire federal government. What
they’ll do with that power is amply illustrated in states like Wisconsin,
Michigan, North Carolina, Oklahoma and Ohio, where they’ve eliminated the right
of public workers to bargain collectively, attacked what’s left of
private-sector unionism via so-called “right to work” laws, turned over public
services (including public schools) to private for-profit companies, made
slashing cuts in state services and enacted such crippling tax cuts — mostly
benefiting the rich — that the states they govern are quickly going broke.
But the drive
for complete Republican control of the federal government hit a bit of a speed
bump in late 2015. Its name was Donald J. Trump. Yes, he’s running for
President as a Republican and he’s so far disclaimed any interest in mounting
an independent campaign if he doesn’t get the Republican nomination. (Actually
he first said he might, then he wouldn’t, then he might again, then he wouldn’t
again.) And it’s true that on a lot of issues he represents the Republican id
in its full glory — in his bashing of Mexican immigrants as “murderers and
rapists,” his attack on Fox News anchor Megyn Kelly (when she asked him a tough
question about his attacks on women, he answered with an attack on her as a
woman, saying she had “blood coming out of her eyes, or wherever”), and his call
for an outright ban on Muslims entering the U.S., as well as his new-found
hatred of abortion and his absolutist position on individuals having a Second
Amendment right to own as many guns, of whatever type, as they want. He’s also
screamed for a more aggressive U.S. military response to terrorism in general
and ISIS in particular; indeed, talking about ISIS Trump sometimes sounds as if
he thinks he can bully them into submission as easily as he can a rival
developer he’s trying to best in a property deal.
However, there
are dangerous bits of heterodoxy in Trump’s brand of Republicanism. For one,
he’s pledged to preserve Social Security and Medicare instead of cutting,
privatizing or eliminating them. He’s less like an American Right-winger than a
European one, appealing directly to working-class voters who were the New
Deal’s biggest supporters as long as they were its biggest beneficiaries — but
turned against it in the 1960’s when the Kennedy and (especially) Johnson
administrations tried to extend it to people of color. In an article in the
February 1 New Yorker (http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2016/02/01/the-duel-faceoff-ryan-lizza?mbid=social_twitter),
Ryan Lizza interviewed Henry Olsen, co-author of a new book called The
Four Faces of the Republican Party. Olsen
argued that most of the recent Republican Presidential nominating races have
been about just how “conservative” the party can be. Trump “is not trying to
answer this question at all,” Olsen told Lizza. “Instead, he is posing a new
question: to what extent should the G.O.P. be the advocates for those
struggling in the modern economy?”
The
radical-Right activists who run the Republican party couldn’t care less about
being the advocates for those struggling in the modern economy. Oh, they know
they have to make at least a pretense of
caring about them, but they really see the non-rich as “moochers” and “takers.”
The radical Right doesn’t have anything to say about the growing inequality of
wealth and income in the U.S. because they think that’s a good thing. Drunk on the arguments of Ayn Rand and the
“Vienna school” of economists she got her libertarian ideology from (notably
Ludwig von Mises and Friedrich A. Hayek), they believe employers, not workers,
create wealth — and therefore the rich should have as much of the nation’s
wealth and income as they can take. To a modern-day Republican, attempts to buy
the working class’s acquiescence in capitalism by making a few gestures in
their favor — a minimum wage, unemployment insurance, health insurance
subsidies, whatever — are not only wrong but literally immoral, since they
amount to government stealing from the successful (and, therefore, deserving)
to help the unsuccessful (and therefore undeserving.)
Of course,
they’re smart enough to know that — even given how far Right they’ve already
moved the discourse in this country (to the extent that the ideas that got
Goldwater savaged as a dangerous radical in 1964, like getting rid of unions
and privatizing Social Security, are now mainstream) — actually saying that in public is going to hurt them electorally.
But that is what they believe. So when Trump promises to bring manufacturing
jobs back to the U.S., he’s getting in the way of what other Republicans regard
as the inexorable march of market-driven fate. And until February 1, the
Republican Right had every reason to fear the nomination of Donald Trump. Even
some of his most Right-wing positions, like his assault on immigrants, he’d
framed not in the usual Republican terms that we have to be “a nation of laws”
and therefore can’t just let anyone into the country, but in the populist terms
of building up the incomes and opportunities of America’s white working people
by protecting them from the cheap competition of the foreign-born.
So a lot of
Right-wing Republican hearts are breathing easier tonight now that Cruz has
beaten Trump in the first showcase in which people actually had a chance to
vote for President. Not that Trump suffered a Howard Dean-style blowout —
Dean’s campaign in 2004 imploded so quickly it reminded me of the old exchange
in Peanuts in which, after one of their
failed baseball games, Charlie Brown said, “For one brief moment, victory was
in our grasp,” and Linus replied, “Yeah, and then the game started” — but the
media pundits who regard Trump’s brand of populism with almost as much scorn as
Bernie Sanders’ brand of socialism seized on it and essentially tried to build
a consensus view that Trump’s second-place showing in Iowa showed him up as a
paper tiger.
With Cruz in the
lead, Right-wing Republicans can breathe easier. They’ve got a standard-bearer
with no heterodox opinions, no embarrassing gaffes like once inviting Hillary Clinton
to his wedding, no hard-to-explain (to the Republican base, anyway) shifts like
Trump’s statement in 1999 that even though he was appalled by the idea of
abortion, he was nonetheless pro-choice. (Cruz’s exposure of that quote from
Trump’s past probably hurt him more in Iowa than anything else, including
skipping the final debate there.)
And as much as I
and my fellow Leftists have been afraid of a Trump Presidency, a Cruz
Presidency would be even worse. Trump at least has built a multi-billion dollar
business; Cruz has done nothing except
try to tear down the achievements of others. Trump has located himself in the
most cosmopolitan city in the U.S.; Cruz has attacked him for “New York
values,” which seems to mean mostly having a friendly, or at least not openly
hateful and condemnatory, attitude towards Queers. About the only thing Cruz
has done in the Senate is shut down the government in 2013 over his temper
tantrum that he couldn’t get Obamacare defunded — and threaten a similar
temper-driven showdown in 2015 over Planned Parenthood. Cruz has the thug-like
mentality of a schoolyard bully who, if he doesn’t get his way, will take the
football and go home.
The Parties Are NOT
Alike!!!
If the
Presidential campaign so far has proved anything, it’s that the belief of all
too many American Leftists that there are no fundamental differences between
the Democratic and Republican parties is flat-out wrong. No, the Democratic
party is hardly as progressive as it could or should be. Yes, it’s entirely too
beholden towards corporations and wealthy individuals to fund its campaigns.
No, it’s not a socialist party, not a working people’s party (though in terms
of the way working-class Americans — white ones, anyway — actually vote, it’s
the Republicans who are the working-class party today!), not even a liberal
party. But on issue after issue, the Democrats are superior to the Republicans
— and superior in ways that are important for anyone concerned about the fate
of America’s 99 percent.
When proposals
to increase the minimum wage come before state and local governments, Democrats
generally vote for them; Republicans don’t. Democrats generally support Social
Security; Republicans want to cut, privatize or eliminate it. It is Democrats
who are pushing the efforts at least to narrow, if not to eliminate altogether,
the gap between men’s and women’s earnings for work of comparable worth.
Democrats generally support a woman’s right to reproductive choice; Republicans
don’t. Democrats generally support equal rights for Queer people, including
marriage equality; Republicans don’t. Democrats generally support laws
protecting workers’ health and safety; Republicans don’t.
And — most
importantly for the future of the human species — Democrats at least
acknowledge the reality of human-based climate change and its potential effects
on the earth’s ability to support us. Democrats may not be willing politically
to do as much as needs to be done to stop climate change from jeopardizing the
future of life on earth, but at least they recognize it as a problem.
Republicans generally deny that humans are causing climate change. Democrats at
least recognize the necessity of a transition from fossil fuels to renewable
energy sources, even if they don’t always act as strongly as they should. The
Republicans’ energy policy is “drill, baby, drill; mine, baby, mine; pollute,
baby, pollute.”
In the run-up to
this year’s Presidential campaign, we’ve seen mass insurgent movements break
out in both parties around atypical candidates. As Lizza noted in his New
Yorker piece, Donald Trump’s support comes
mainly from working-class people whose families worked industrial jobs for
decades and who have seen America stop virtually all manufacturing. It’s left
them in a state where, for reasons they can’t understand but which mainstream
politicians tell them are “inevitable,” the relatively high-paying industrial
jobs that once sustained their families are gone — and more and more of the
jobs that can be done without a
college education are going to immigrants who will work cheaper and won’t risk
their presence in the U.S. by daring to complain.
Bernie Sanders’
revolution is also driven by economics — not abstractly but directly. If the
typical Trump voter is a middle-aged workingman displaced by globalization,
immigration and the civil rights advances of people of color, the typical
Sanders voter is a college student who was promised that college would assure
them higher-than-average earnings. Instead they’re finding themselves racking
up more and more student loan debt, and they’ve heard enough stories about
people with Ph.D.’s working at McDonald’s to worry whether they’ll ever have
jobs that pay enough to justify the huge investment they made in their
educations. The typical Trump voter is someone who was promised the American
dream and then had it yanked away from them; the typical Sanders voter is
someone who’s been told all their life that they’re going to be part of the
first generation in American history that isn’t going to have it as good,
economically, as their parents did — and there’s nothing they can do about it.
I remember
reading an article during the Reagan presidency that said that as long as the
Republicans can persuade people that their economic problems are the fault of
the people below them, they will win. As
long as the Democrats can persuade people that their economic problems are the
fault of people above them, they
will win. The outcome of Iowa indicates not only that America is deeply split
politically, but that the Republicans are still able to put up people like Ted
Cruz, Donald Trump and Marco Rubio who can win votes by tapping working
people’s anxieties over race and culture — a strategy that’s been working for
Republicans since 1968.
The Democrats
are as divided within themselves as the nation as a whole is between them and the Republicans. It’s
fascinating that, though Bernie Sanders is a few years older than Hillary
Clinton — and much older in his style of
presentation (impassioned rather than collected) — early polls in Iowa
indicated young voters breaking for Sanders by 85 to 15 percent. Hillary
Clinton represents the past of the Democratic Party: one that pays lip service
to progressive ideals and occasionally expends political capital on them when
they can balance that with the needs of their big-money donors and sponsors.
Bernie Sanders, at least I can hope, represents its future.
As the
Republicans get more hard-line in their determination to return us to the age
of the robber barons and their “Panics,” the Democrats need to become, in deeds
as well as in words, the party of the underdog, of the 99 percent, of the idea
that there are certain obligations a just society has to all its members. The Democrats need to be the party that
proudly proclaims that your access to employment shouldn’t depend on the color
of your skin, the plumbing of your body, or whether you have papers. It should
be the party that proclaims your access to health care should not be a
crapshoot depending on your job or your marital status, but should be a right
you are guaranteed by birth and which we as a people pay for jointly through
our taxes.
It should be a
party that proclaims the survival of our species is its paramount concern. It
should say that greenhouse gases, rising sea levels and the other impacts of
human-caused climate change are far more serious threats to our national
security than ISIS and other terrorists. It will not, of course, become any of
those things until we have the kind of “political revolution” Bernie Sanders is
talking about — the hundreds of thousands of people in the streets the U.S.
Left was able to muster in the 1890’s, the 1930’s and the 1960’s to achieve the
political gains now threatened by the ascendancy of the Republican party and
the radical Right that controls it.
As I’ve written
before in these pages, achieving social change does not come about exclusively through electoral politics; nor does it come about
exclusively through street action. It takes both. And whether he wins or loses the Democratic
nomination or the Presidency itself, I hope that’s the lesson Bernie Sanders
teaches the American Left.